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Hindsight bias
Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping determinism, is the inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been predictable, despite there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it.〔Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). "Hindsight bias". ''Perspectives on Psychological Science'', 7, 411-426. 〕 It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations.〔Rudiger, F. (2007). "Ways to Assess Hindsight Bias". ''Social Cognition'', 25 (1) : 14-31.〕 Hindsight bias may cause memory distortion, where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomes. It has been suggested that the effect can cause extreme methodological problems while trying to analyze, understand, and interpret results in experimental studies. A basic example of the hindsight bias is when, after viewing the outcome of a potentially unforeseeable event, a person believes he or she "knew it all along". Such examples are present in the writings of historians describing outcomes of battles, physicians recalling clinical trials, and in judicial systems trying to attribute responsibility and predictability of accidents.〔Fischhoff, B. (2003). "Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty", ''Quality & Safety in Health Care'', 12, 304-312. 〕
== History ==
The hindsight bias, although not thitherto named as such, was not a new concept when it emerged in psychological research in the 1970s. In fact, it had been indirectly described numerous times by historians, philosophers, and physicians.〔 In 1973, Baruch Fischhoff attended a seminar where Paul E. Meehl stated an observation that clinicians often overestimate their ability to have foreseen the outcome of a particular case, as they claim to have known it all along.〔Fischhoff, B. (2007) "An early history of hindsight research". ''Social Cognition'', 25, 10-13. 〕 Baruch, a psychology graduate student at the time, saw an opportunity in psychological research to explain these observations.〔
In the early seventies, investigation of heuristics and biases was a large area of study in psychology, led by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.〔 Two heuristics identified by Tversky and Kahneman were of immediate importance in the development of the hindsight bias; these were the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic.〔Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1973). "Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability". ''Cognitive psychology'', 5, 207-232.〕 In an elaboration of these heuristics, Beyth and Fischhoff devised the first experiment directly testing the hindsight bias.〔Fischhoff, B., and Beyth, R. (1975). I knew it would happen': Remembered probabilities of once-future things. ''Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance'', 13, 1-16.〕 They asked participants to judge the likelihood of several outcomes of US president Richard Nixon's upcoming visit to Beijing (then romanized as Peking) and Moscow. Some time after president Nixon's return, participants were asked to recall (or reconstruct) the probabilities they had assigned to each possible outcome, and their perceptions of likelihood of each outcome was greater or overestimated for events that actually had occurred.〔 This study is frequently referred to in definitions of the hindsight bias, and the title of the paper, "I knew it would happen", may have contributed to the hindsight bias being interchangeable with the phrase "knew it all along" hypothesis.
In 1975, Fischhoff developed another method for investigating the hindsight bias, which at the time was referred to as the "creeping determinism hypothesis".〔 This method involves giving participants a short story with four possible outcomes, one of which they are told is true, and are then asked to assign the likelihood of each particular outcome.〔 Participants frequently assign a higher likelihood of occurrence to whichever outcome they have been told is true.〔 Remaining relatively unmodified, this method is still used in psychological and behavioural experiments investigating aspects of the hindsight bias. Having evolved from the heuristics of Tversky and Kahneman into the creeping determinism hypothesis and finally into the hindsight bias as we now know it, the concept has many practical applications and is still at the forefront of research today. Recent studies involving the hindsight bias have investigated the effect age has on the bias, how hindsight may impact interference and confusion, and how it may affect banking and investment strategies.〔Marks, A. Z., and Arkes, H. R. (2010). "The effects of mental contamination on the hindsight bias: Source confusion determines success in disregarding knowledge". ''Journal of Behavioral Decision Making'', 23: 131-160.〕〔Biasi, B., Weber, M. (2009). "Hindsight Bias, risk perception and investment performance". ''Journal of management science'', 55, 1018-1029.〕
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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